Wednesday, December 31, 2008

delhistockclub Ranbaxy Labs-Is The Company Revealing Everything...www.stockbuzzindia.com

Ranbaxy Laboratories: Is The Company Revealing Everything?

CMP Rs 240
 
Post the 52 per cent acquisition in Ranbaxy Labs by the Japanese TNC Dai-ichi, the Ranbaxy stock plunged to a low of Rs 164. Since hitting this low late in October 2008, the stock has gradually moved up and is now quoting at Rs 240. Could this be simple window dressing by Mutual Funds hell bent on giving some shine to their year end portfolios or bottom fishing by the bottom scrapers? Difficult to say.
 
What is evident are the staggering losses Ranbaxy reported in Q3 08, amounting to Rs 350 crore which led to a negative EPS of Rs 9 for the quarter. The footnotes to the Q3 numbers reveal nothing more than a casual reference to Inventory write-downs relating to two plants on which the USFDA has pointed fingers.
 
Investors would note that the units in Paonta Sahib were believed to be producing drugs that were not USFDA compliant. Though the company continued to deny and agreed to provide internal reports to the USFDA, it always maintained no wrong-doing. What then were these write-offs and how much more is to be written off?
 
Ranbaxy has chosen not to quantify the impact of its inventory write-down in the Q3 results provided to the BSE. This is a serious non disclosure and one that will force investors to avoid the stock.
 
Instead Ranbaxy has gone on to adopt the Accounting Standard on Derivatives-which essentially being a non cash flow affecting item is a meaningless disclosure in the current circumstances.
 
Investors would expect corporate India would come clean with their accounts when the New Reporting Season and the New Calendar Year starts next week. Till then, just do with what Ranbaxy has reported so far, and that is reproduced below:
 
Foreign exchange (Gain )/ Loss represents exchange differences arising during the period(s) on foreign currency borrowings including Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds.

Pursuant to the Announcement "Accounting for Derivatives" by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, the Company intends to go for an early adoption of Accounting Standard 30 "Financial Instruments : Recognition and Measurement" (AS 30). Pending adoption of AS 30(when appropriate accounting would be carried out), it is pertinent to disclose the following -

(i) The gain on fair valuation of underlying transactions against which the derivative contracts were undertaken amounts to Rs 13560 mn (net of tax). After offsetting the loss on fair valuation of such contracts outstanding on September 30, 2008 as mentioned in (ii) below, net gain amounts to Rs. 1050 million (net of tax).

(ii) Without considering the effect of fair valuation of underlying transactions against which derivative contracts were undertaken, the loss on fair valuation of such outstanding contracts amounts to Rs. 12510 million (net of tax).

The Company uses forward contracts and currency options as economic hedges and not for trading or speculative purposes.

(iii) The limited review report for the previous quarter has been modified on the  afore mentioned matters.

Exceptional items for the quarter relate to the provision for inventory write off made by the Company as a matter of prudence consequent to import alert issued by US FDA on September 16, 2008 for some of the products manufactured at two of the facilities of the Company.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

delhistockclub Torrent Power-BUY ...www.stockbuzzindia.com

Torrent Power-Illuminating Gujarat
With the successful conclusion of the Gas supply agreement with Reliance, the decks are now clear for the commissioning of the 1147 MW Sugen Combined Cycle Power Plant set up at Surat. Costing nearly Rs 4500 crore the unit was set up by Siemens AG under a turnkey contract.
 
The assurance of natural gas from the KG2 fields implies that Torrent will be able to meet its pre-announced commissioning date of Q4FY09 with the plant running at full capacity in 3-4 months. Consequently, power generation capacity at Torrent will triple for most of FY10, giving an incremental jump in earnings.
 
Torrent Power LTD. (TPL) is an integrated power company engaged in the
business of generation and distribution of electricity. The company at present
supplies power to the cities of Surat, Ahmedabad & Gandhinagar in Gujarat and Bhiwandi in Maharashtra, sourcing power partly through its own generation facility of 500 MW & partly through purchase of power from GUVNL & MSEDCL.
 
TPL is expanding its capacity by 1147.5MW by putting up a gas-based power plant in Surat, which is expected to commence generation during Q4FY09. This expansion will make Torrent self sufficient to cater to its distribution areas, which will result into lower cost of supply per unit.
 
The company is among the most efficient power utility in the country in terms of PAF & PLF. It also has T&D loss of 8.75% in Gujarat, one of the lowest in the country. TPL was allotted the first distribution franchisee in country for Bhiwandi circle in Maharashtra in Jan 07.
 
With the tripling of generation capacity in less than a year & being the first company to enter into the business of distribution franchisee in country, TPL is all set to grow & achieve its presence in booming power sector.
 
TPL, being one of the most efficient power utility in the country having T&D loss of 8.75% & collection efficiency of over 99%, it is likely to achieve the stipulated targets. With other states also planning to go for franchisee model, this business has the potential to become the major revenue earner for the company going forward.
 
TPL has entered into JV with PGCIL to form a subsidiary Torrent Power Grid
Limited (TPGL) for putting up a power transmission line to evacuate power
from Surat plant to Ahmedabad distribution area. The JV has completed first
phase of evacuation arrangement by construction of 26 kms Gandhar –
Vapi LILO.
 
The work for 400 kV Double Circuit Transmission line from SUGEN to Pirana (Ahmedabad) is in progress. The company has also installed transmission lines to connect SUGEN plant with Kim sub-station of GETCO.
 
Three 220 kV Double Circuit lines from SUGEN to Surat and two 220 kV
receiving sub-stations are complete and energized to take care of
transmission of power to meet Surat requirement.
.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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delhistockclub CitiGroup: Contrarian Temptation

CitiGroup
Global Equities Strategy
 
Contrarian Temptation
 
If Banking, Real Estate, Construction and a lot of other sectors thrown in-between brought down Emerging Markets in 2008, could it happen that these beaten down sectors take EMs higher in 2009?
 
The contrarian amongst us would feel this way. As interest rates head to zero in Japan and the Euro zone, very much in sympathy with the US interest rates, the reflation trade could mean a sell-off in bonds, and the flow of the money geyser into commodities, financials and real estate during 2009. The contrarian would be buying Asia Pac, EM equities and Selling US Stocks, US Bonds and Gold.
 
Everyone likes to be a contrarian, especially at this time of year. Surely this
year's themes have gone too far? Surely they will reverse next year? In this
note, we take a sober look at contrarian strategies. We find that successes are surprisingly rare, especially for stock-pickers.
 
Contrarians had a mixed year in 2008. At a stock-picking level, they would
have correctly called the top in the global growth trade, but gave back all their
performance though trying to call the bottom in Financials. Contrarian asset
allocators would have done much better, as they would have been bearish on
risk assets a year ago.
 
As for 2009, we think that performance from contrarian strategies will be mixed but not disastrous. We suspect that die-hard contrarian stock pickers might have to wait until 2010 for the big macro turning point that they crave.
 
While the contrarians never stop trying, it seems that they are doomed to lose
money in the world of style strategy. Once a trend is established, it can go on
for years. When that trend reverses, it can go for years in the opposite
direction.
 
Turning points are rare. Why? Perhaps the capital flows between styles are more reflective of the flows into and out of fund managers. When one style is outperforming, consultants switch funds to those managers who follow that style until the strategy finally has a bad year, and then the consultants switch back in the opposite direction.
 
2007 looks like one of those rare style-reversal years. Both value/growth and
large/mid-cap trends shifted direction. This suggested to us that the
supertanker had turned — put on the new momentum trade (overweight largecap and growth) in 2008. This has worked nicely. Given that this is only the second year in the opposite direction, we would suggest that contrarians stay well away. Stick with large-cap and growth strategies in 2009.
 
Contrarian Calls
 
What are the contrarian calls for 2009? We first look at the bull and bear stock list. The bull picks have fallen by an average 72% in 2008 and the themes are very clear. A contrarian would be coming back for another
tilt at Financials, which make up seven out of the ten bull picks. Elsewhere,
having successfully shorted the commodity theme in 2008, the contrarian
would already be trying to call the turn in Rio Tinto and Gazprom.
 
The themes are also very clear amongst the bear picks, which managed to rise an average 19% in 2008. Our contrarian would be a big seller of defensives. Pharma & Biotech contributes four names. And, of course, any self-respecting contrarian would be short VW in 2009.
 
Are Contrarians Value Investors?
 
Unsurprisingly, the contrarian is a value investor. The average bull pick 12-
month forward PE is 6x compared to 20x on the bear picks. The contrarian
would benefit from any shift towards value in 2008. This seems unlikely given
that we suspect that we are only two years into a shift towards growth strategies that could last several years.
 
Nevertheless, we probably have more sympathy for the contrarian stock-picker than we did last year. Although the outlook remains very difficult, we would expect Financials to stabilise sometime over the next 12 months. We also recognise that the defensives now look expensive in relative terms.
 
Perhaps the "Twilight Zone" (which we identified in a recent note
2) will be more helpful for a contrarian. This is the phase in an economic downturn when overall market valuations have got so low that equity indices decouple from falling corporate earnings. We would expect to see some sector rotation in this period, especially at the extremes. This could, for example, help Financials relative to Pharma in 2009.
 
A contrarian would be putting on a pro-cyclical trade at the regional level.
He/she would be buying back into Emerging Markets and Asia Pac and moving Underweight in the more defensive (and expensive) US equity market.
 
A contrarian asset allocator would also be backing a reflation of the global economy in 2009. Having shorted commodities so successfully in 2008, he/she would now be buying back into them. Other risk assets such as equities and high yield would be looking attractive. Alternatively, defensive assets such as the Yen, government bonds, and gold would be treated as selling opportunities.
 
Strategy Outlook
 
Contrarian stock pickers would have had another tough year in 2008. Their
bearish call on the global growth trade would have been more than wiped out
by their bullish call on Financials. Instead, contrarians should have stuck to
asset allocation in 2008, where they would have spectacularly called the
collapse in commodity and equity prices.
 
As for 2009, the message is very clear. These brave contrarians would now be putting on the reflation trade — buying Financials and commodity stocks and selling defensives, especially in the Pharma & Biotech sector. At a regional level they would be buying back into Emerging Markets and Asia Pac and selling the US.
 
A contrarian asset allocator would be buying equities / commodities/ high yield and selling government bonds/gold/yen.
 
The dreadful track record of contrarian stock-pickers makes us wary. It might
be more intellectually gratifying to call share price tops and bottoms, but they
are rarer than we all think. Our current regional and global sector
recommendations are still more momentum than contrarian.
 
We are Underweight Asia Pac and Emerging Markets. We are Overweight defensives and Underweight Financials.
 
We suspect that our "Twilight Zone" thesis offers the best hope for contrarians in 2009. Under this scenario, rock bottom valuations allow equity markets to find a base before corporate profits. There is a mild shift towards riskier equities in this period, which would help contrarians. But wholesale rotation does not happen until the profits cycle bottoms. We would expect contrarians to perform much better when this turning point is reached.
 
On our forecasts, that is more likely to be a 2010 event. Right now we would rather be contrarian on the global equity market (an asset allocation call) than within the global equity market. So for the die-hard Christmas lunch stock-pickers, we would misquote St Augustine "Lord make me contrarian, but not yet".


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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delhistockclub Ken Fisher: Be A Bad News Bull

Bad news is good. You can expect more of it. And you can expect the stock market to resume its recovery, which began Nov. 20. Do you find this line of argument perplexing? You have company. A lot of my clients are baffled at the notion that the stock market should be climbing at a time when employment is declining.
 
Buy if you look back at the pattern in past stock market recoveries, or think about what the stock market represents, the combination of a bull market and a recession will not seem so strange.
 
The stock market is a discounter of all known information. It is not a barometer of the current state of the economy but a guess about where the economy (and corporate profits) will be 6 to 24 months in the future.
 
When we all know that the economy is deteriorating, that is already reflected in prices. The September-to-November crash anticipated the announcement in December that the economy is in recession. Now stocks are starting to climb, in anticipation of an economic recovery that probably won't begin until the second half of 2009.
 
Don't expect to see any real economic improvement or any good news in the labor market for a long time. In history the evidence is overwhelming: Stock market bottoms happen, and then stocks jolt upwards, while the economy keeps getting worse--sometimes by a lot and for a long time.
 
Take the bear market preceding the roaring 1920s. Global stocks bottomed in June 1921, but global economies didn't hit bottom for fully two more years. Or the 1973--74 monster bear, when stocks bottomed in October 1974 but the U.S. economy kept sliding through March 1975.
 
In the past 12 months the unemployment rate has climbed from 4.7% to 6.8%. It will keep going up for a while. During this time you will see a steady parade of bearish news. There will be a lot of people saying that the stimulus schemes undertaken by the departing Treasury Department were a failure and that the ones from the incoming Administration won't do much better--or work at all.
 
Look past the pessimism and remind yourself that it's better to be a little early than a little late in getting back into stocks. The upward move at the beginning of a bull market is almost always huge compared with the vacillations late in the bear market. If you try to pick a bottom, you will miss a good part of the action.
 
Here are five stocks I like now.
 
Paccar (28, PCAR) makes Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks; it has a 26% market share in the U.S. and 14% in Europe. Earnings will be depressed by the recession; I expect only $980 million, or $2.60 a share, on revenue of $15.8 billion in the fiscal year ending December 2008. But this is a classic stock to lead the market and do well even before its profits hit bottom. It will cost you 11 times trailing earnings and 60% of book value. It yields 2.8%.
 
Corning (9, GLW) is the world's leader in specialty glass and ceramics. Among the products contributing to its $6.5 billion in annual revenue are liquid crystal displays found in cell phones, cars and lab equipment. Off 64% so far in 2008, it will bounce back.
 
Air Products & Chemicals (50, APD) is the largest vendor of gases and the equipment to convey them. Revenues run $10.5 billion a year. The company sells everything from bulk gases for manufacturing to oxygen for respiratory therapy; there are dozens of products serving dozens of industries. It costs nine times next year's likely earnings and one times annual revenues. Dividend yield is 3.6%.
 
India's Wipro (6, WIT) is growing, well run and big in its business, which is selling software and data processing services to 950-plus multinational firms. During the recession its profits will be weak, but its market share will increase. Off 50% in 2008, it sells at nine times my forecast for 2009 earnings.
 
Research In Motion (37, RIMM) feeds an addiction. You see people in public everywhere who can't quit. When my BlackBerry is more than a foot from me I get twitchy. Soon you upgrade to more potent stuff. I'm on my sixth version. Global cell phone, e-mail, Internet, alarm clock and pocket computer which wirelessly synchs with your PC, the BlackBerry beats the heck out of the iPhone or heroin. The service is cheap at $65 a month for everything. The stock is cheaper; at ten times the earnings it can deliver in the fiscal year that ends Feb. 28, 2009.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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Monday, December 29, 2008

delhistockclub City Union Bank-May Make A Break For Rs 25, Current PE 3.5 (Presentation Attached)

City Union Bank Limited-Value Play, Multi-bagger
CMP Rs 14
 
-The Oldest Private Sector Bank In The Country.
 
-Over 100 years of continuously profitable operations
 
-180 Branches spanning 7 States and 2 Union Territories
 
-Capital Adequacy Ratio of 13.4 per cent as of September 2008.
 
-Net NPA 0.8 per cent
 
-Equity Rs 32 crore
 
-FY08 PAT Rs 100 crore plus.
 
-FY08 EPS Rs 4, FY09 E EPS on increased capital-Rs 5
 
-Key Shareholders Larsen and Toubro, LIC Of India, Canara Bank, FMO Nederlandse, Argonaut Ventures, Acacia Partners, GMO Illiquid Funds with a near 30 per cent Equity Ownership.
 
Business Relationships and Business Offered
 
-Cash management services offered to LIC and L&T
 
-Expected to improve low cost float funds
 
-Issuing guarantees to Contractors referred by L & T
 
-Funding retail customers of L & T Finance
 
-Expected to improve Fee based income
 
-Long term investors adding credibility and support to
management.
 
-Bank Assurance partner to LIC and ranked No.1 in south
zone.
 
Well Capitalised- Steady increase in Capital Funds.
 
-Rs.1250 Mn raised through private placement in the year 2007-2008.
 
-Time Deposits stable and growing @ 35% CAGR.
 
-Low cost Savings & Demand Deposits steadily increasing.
 
-Low level of borrowing offering high potential for leverage.
 
 
 


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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delhistockclub Ken Fisher: Pessimism And The Rebound

Human affairs are admittedly in a deplorable state. This, however, is no novelty. As far back as we can see, human affairs have always been in a deplorable state." So begins The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, by the late economic historian Carlo Cipolla of the University of California, Berkeley. Those words also began my Dec. 24, 1990 column, "Buy Now," which started a long string of bullish columns following 14 months of bearish ones.
 
Cipolla's words were a comic twist on the observation that society makes progress despite excessive pessimism and abundant stupidity. He also knew that social fads cause smart people to do stupid things.
 
Bear markets, for example, force investors to the sidelines because human affairs appear to be in a deplorable state. These investors end up missing the initial surge of the next bull market. Human nature causes them to create myriad rationalizations about why bad will endure and progress remain dormant. But that always ends up wrong, because even while conditions seem deplorable, things do improve.
 
Fighting the last war is always a mistake. Those who got scared out of tech in 2000--03 are finding that those problems are no longer around today. Three years from now, we won't be worrying at all about the demons of the 2008 credit crunch.
 
When will we get the bounce off the bear market bottom? Did it start on Oct. 28? I can't tell you. I can only tell you that if you're preoccupied with the deplorable state of the world economy you're going to miss most of the recovery in the market.
 
Sometime soon, and maybe now, we will have the definitive end of the 2008 crash. The stocks that rise the most in the initial stage of a recovery will usually be those from the sectors that got beaten up the most in the decline and have a speculative quality to them.
 
Companies in this group include energy, basic materials, industrials and consumer discretionary. But until all the damage is long past, and the rebound in these stocks is almost over, they'll remain speculative. Most investors, and maybe you, are too frightened at times like these to buy such stocks.
 
So then think of stocks that are in basically stable and strong fields, with a defined franchise, that have been beaten up in the bear market and likely overly so. They may not have the highest returns, but they may have the highest likelihood of a very good return. Here are five that I think fit that description.
 
Forest Laboratories (23, FRX) is a small (sales, $3.6 billion) vendor of patented drugs like Lexapro for depression (more than half of sales and growing), Namenda for Alzheimer's and Benicar for hypertension. It's inherently recession-resistant, and its sales and profits should grow over time. The balance sheet is strong, with long-term debt only 4% of total assets. But the stock is off 38% this year, out of fear that drugs now in the pipeline won't work out. The shares are going for seven times their likely $3.75 of earnings in the year that ends next March, and two times revenue. The company is a plausible takeover target.
 
Travelers Cos. (41, TRV) is a rock-solid insurer for both people and businesses. Cheaper than most of its peers, it has suffered collateral damage from the bomb that hit bank stocks, but it doesn't have anything like the portfolio losses that dragged down the rest of the financial sector. At seven times 2008 earnings, one times sales and book value, and with a 3.3% dividend yield, it should be much higher several years out.
 
International Paper (17, IP) is cyclical because there are periodic bouts of overcapacity in the paper business that take prices down. But it should hold up fairly well in the recession. The stock is half where it was ten years ago and is down more than the market this year. It goes for eight times 2008 earnings and 30% of annual revenue, and it offers a 5.6% dividend yield.
 
Repsol (19, REP) is the largest Spanish oil producer, with $80 billion of annual revenue and production of just over a million barrels of oil equivalent daily. (ExxonMobil does 4.2 million.) Repsol has tremendous growth potential. It sells at five times likely earnings for this year and 30% of revenue, and has a 8.3% dividend yield.
 
What the world needs now is a happy face. France's L'Oreal (16, LRLCY) can help. It sells $20 billion a year of health and beauty products. So far this year the stock has done worse than the market. But this high-quality firm does well in good times or bad. Coming out of the last bear market its stock was stellar. Its multiple of 15 times this year's earnings deserves to be higher. The dividend yield is 2%.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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delhistockclub Citigroup: No Risk, No Yield

Citigroup
Global Economics
Three Things To Watch Out For As We Head Into CY 2009:
 
-End Of Tax Linked Selling In Equities
 
-Yield on 1YUST at 0.8%, 2% on 10YUST & 2.8% on 30YUST
 
-Possible January Effect on Equities As Fund Managers Add Mid Cap and Small Cap Names To Asset Books, with another 12 months to look out for and play on the Risk.
 
If you want yield, you'll have to take some risk. You'll get as little of it from government-issued debt as possible. This was one message of the Fed's step to cap the funds rate at ¼%, keep it at "exceptionally low levels...for some time," and even suggest potential purchases of already over-valued long-term Treasuries.
 
While markets have improved some, data suggest severe limitations on provisions of new private credit. Spending and investment data are still consistent with a credit crunch.
 
However, tight financial conditions are gradually easing. GSE debt costs fell about 50 basis points over the past two days, and conforming mortgage rates should fall below 5.5%.
 
The prime rate fell 75 bps, driving down most HELOC rates.
 
Importantly, IG corporate bond yields have fallen 100-140 BPS since October 31.
 
The U.S. dollar has fallen back some on the worsening U.S. data and aggressive Fed policy tack. However, we expect other central banks to ease more than consensus expectations during 2009. Economic data abroad have followed U.S. weakness to date, and this may well resume.
 
But like we said, there can be No yield without Risk.


Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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